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3
Sep 2010
Fig 1.
Adult smoking prevalence, age 15 and over, 1990-2006
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AC Nielsen survey, 1982-2005. www.ndp.govt.nz Tobacco Facts
MoH TUS Survey2006 (age <65) NZ Census
1996 and 2006. The Census includes all ages, and so overall smoking rate
is less.
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Smoking reduced an estimated 15% in the past 15 years
(1990-2005).(0.27 percentage points per year)
On this basis,
a reduction of 1% per year, it could be over 100 years before cigarettes
are as uncommon as pipes (<1%).
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Fig. 2. Number of smokers age 15 years
and over, 1985-2005.
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The number of cigarette smokers has increased since
the Smoke-free Environments Act 1990. Since 1990 the population has grown
as rapidly (due to migration) as smoking has declined.
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Figure 3. Projected rate of decline
in smoking prevalence based on recent trends in percentage points
decrease
|
|
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This graph projects the recent decreases in percentage
points of smoking prevalence forwards unchanged. On this basis, it could
take 45-65 years for NZ adults to reduce smoking prevalence to 5% of
adults smoking, (the percentage of NZ doctors who smoked in 1996.)
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·
The decrease 2000-2005 (0.4
percent-age points per year) is twice as fast as between 1990 and 2000.
- The
rate of decrease in Maori smoking prevalence is twice as rapid as in
non-Maori, since 1990 and since 2000, but is based on smaller numbers,
and wider confidence intervals. The 95% confidence limits for smoking
prevalence in 2004 were 44.3, 49.1 for Maori, and 22.6, 24.2 for total
population (Tobacco Facts 2005 MoH).
Fig. 4. Cigarette smoking prevalence in New
Zealand 2000-2006; adults and parents versus adolescents
|
Year
|
Age 14-15
years
At least
monthly
|
Parent or
parents of 14-5 year olds
|
Adults age
15+ years daily
|
|
N
|
30,000
|
60,000
|
10,000
|
|
2000
|
27.9
|
Na
|
24.8
|
|
2001
|
24.8
|
40.3
|
24.9
|
|
2002
|
22.1
|
39.4
|
24.5
|
|
2003
|
20.7
|
40.6
|
24.7
|
|
2004
|
17.5
|
410
|
23.4
|
|
2005
|
16.8
|
39.8
|
23.5
|
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2006
|
14.2
|
39.9
|
22.2
|
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Source
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ASH year 10
survey
www.ash.org.nz
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MoH Tobacco
Facts
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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For comparison of New
Zealand with Sweden
at age 15-24 years, see snus.htm at Figure 1.
For comparison with whether
people smoke in adolescents’ homes, see smokefreehomes.htm
Parental smoking is as
reported by their 14-15 year old children.
One in seven
adolescents smoke monthly or more often. But one
in four 15-19 year olds smoke daily. (Fig.6) Adults are reducing their
smoking slowly While the proportion of young people age 14-15 years
taking up smoking reduced after 1999,
parents’ smoking prevalence was reported as steady in all ethnic
groups to 2006.
Fig 5. Cigarette smoking by age group,
prevalence, 2006
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|
This graph
records daily smoking, except that for age 14-15 years the figure
includes daily, weekly and monthly smokers.
In late
teen years, at age 15-19 nearly a quarter smoke cigarettes.
The decreased
smoking prevalence over age 50 is largely due to many smokers having died
early.
Source:
ASH Surveys for age 14-15 years, 2006.
TUS MoH
survey for age 15 and over.
Tobacco Trends MoH
2006.
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Figure 6
Daily tobacco smoking, 2006.
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Graph at
c:/123/Tob/prevalence/International/Census_survivaladjPrev.xls
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The 2006
Census asks Do you smoke regularly,
that is, one or more a day (counting only tobacco cigarettes)?
The Census
underestimates smoking among 15-19 year- olds by 5 percentage points
compared to the results from computerized assisted telephone interviewing
used in the Tobacco Use Survey, also conducted in the first quarter of
2006, which counts any tobacco smoking.
The Census gives a figure of 20.7% for daily cigarette
smoking for the total population.
For the
population age 15-64 years the Census estimates daily smoking at 23.0%,
similar to the TUS estimate of
23.5% smoking any tobacco product (including non-daily smoking),
and 22% for daily smoking at age 15-64 years.
Smoking prevalence is lower after age
50 due to smokers dying earlier than non-smokers.
NZ Census 2006 www.statistics.govt.nz
Tobacco Trends. 2006 Ministry of Health. Appendices.Table
B6.
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|
|
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Fig 7.
Prevalence, and Consumption per adult and per smoker 1985-2004, New
Zealand
|
|
% adults smoking
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cigarettes/ adult/ year
tax-paid
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Cigarettes/ smoker/day
tax-paid
|
|
1985
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30.1
|
2493
|
22.7
|
|
|
30.0
|
2304
|
21.1
|
|
|
29.6
|
2328
|
21.5
|
|
|
28.7
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2318
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22.1
|
|
|
26.7
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1877
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19.2
|
|
1990
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27.3
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1972
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19.8
|
|
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26.2
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1742
|
18.2
|
|
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26.8
|
1561
|
16.0
|
|
|
27.0
|
1531
|
15.5
|
|
|
27.0
|
1471
|
14.9
|
|
1995
|
26.4
|
1477
|
15.3
|
|
|
25.6
|
1511
|
16.2
|
|
|
26.1
|
1444
|
15.2
|
|
|
25.2
|
1377
|
15.0
|
|
|
25.5
|
1312
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14.1
|
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2000
|
25.2
|
1339
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14.5
|
|
|
25.2
|
1129
|
12.3
|
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2002
|
24.5
|
1186
|
13.3
|
|
2003
|
24.7
|
1016
|
11.3
|
|
2004
|
23.4
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1000
|
11.7
|
|
2005
|
|
1037
|
|
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Cigarettes and loose tobacco per adult, 1985-2005.
Data from the middle column on the left.
Excluding cigars
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Source: AC Nielsen, for cigarette smoking
prevalence age 15 and over. Face to face survey.
Tax-paid consumption data. www.statistics.govt.nz
Cigarettes per smoker by day is derived from previous columns.
Fig. 8. Smoking prevalence by ethnic group,
1990-2004.
|
|
Maori
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Pacific
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European
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Asian
|
|
1990
|
52.5
|
31.1
|
24.8
|
|
|
1991
|
49.6
|
29.4
|
23.7
|
|
|
1992
|
51.1
|
32.5
|
24.1
|
|
|
1993
|
53.7
|
33.0
|
23.6
|
|
|
1994
|
51.6
|
33.8
|
23.6
|
19.3
|
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1995
|
50.6
|
33.6
|
23.7
|
12.2
|
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1996
|
45.7
|
33.4
|
23.0
|
16.4
|
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1997
|
48.4
|
32.6
|
23.4
|
16.0
|
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1998
|
47.8
|
32.0
|
22.8
|
15.5
|
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1999
|
50.9
|
30.0
|
22.8
|
15.1
|
|
2000
|
49.4
|
34.3
|
22.2
|
17.8
|
|
2001
|
51.0
|
30.7
|
21.7
|
15.9
|
|
2002
|
48.3
|
33.3
|
21.1
|
15.4
|
|
2003
|
50.3
|
35.9
|
22.3
|
17.4
|
|
2004
|
46.7
|
29.0
|
19.7
|
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Note: For 2004, European includes Asian.
Source: ACNielsen
surveys for Ministry of Health, and Tobacco Facts (MoH
2005). Not age standardized.
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Fig.9.
The lung cancer rate, new cases registered per 100,000 population; New
Zealand, 1997- 2003
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Lung cancer mortality. In 2000,
smoking caused 1185 deaths from lung cancer in New
Zealand of which 88%
of male, and 79% of female lung cancer deaths were avoidable if no-one
had smoked. Peto et al. www.ctsu.ox.ac.uk
The lung cancer rate decreases 10-20 years
after a fall in smoking prevalence. At age 80 and over, the new
case rate falls; fewer smokers live to this age.
Men Since 1997, lung
cancer rates in men have generally declined.
© End Smoking NZ 2012.
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www.iarc.fr www.nzhis.govt.nz
Logarithmic scale used to highlight the difference at younger ages.
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Women The lung cancer rate per 100,000
in each age group decreased in men and increased in younger women
from 1997 through 2000 to 2003. This is not surprising: smoking
prevalence has been higher in young women than in young men for some
years.
© End Smoking NZ 2012.
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