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Reductions in
smoking in leading countries
Summary: In
contrast to the situation up to 2006, smoking prevalence may be starting
to reduce more rapidly in NZ from 2007.
The 2007 national Health Survey
showed a one-quarter reduction 1996-2007. (Figure 1),
Although AC Nielsen surveys showed a
lesser decline, it is confirmed by a similar proportional
reduction in number of cigarettes
(including RYOs) released for sale per adult,
based
on AC Nielsen surveys. Also other recent
surveys tend to confirm that by 2007, less than 20% of
NZ adults now smoked daily.
Factors favouring faster reduction
in NZ are
- a 50% increase in the tobacco control
budget since 2006. (Now up by $18 million pa)
- 80% increase in expenditure on
subsidization and distribution of NRT since 2007.
- Fewer young people smoking at age
15, since 1999, according to surves of 14-15
year-olds.
- MoH now funding more hard-hitting TV
advertisements about risks of smoking.
- Manufacturers required to
print hard hitting graphic warnings on packets from 2008
- Bans on Indoor smoking and tobacco
promotion are well accepted and enforced.
- Increased calls to Quitline in 2008.
- Change in policy to relax the
restrictions on NRT sales, and to promote more quit attempts.
Sweden is so far doing best of all, no
doubt aided by the popularity of snuff among men.
Sweden has low deaths rates to match, as
snuff does not cause lung cancer.
Figure
1. Daily cigarette smoking prevalence, change in the past decade.
Factors hindering further reduction in NZ are
- RYO cigarettes cost only $4 a
day to smoke. (2 cents a puff).
- Beliefs that RYOs are somehow safer, when they are not.
- No increase in the inflation
adjusted price of cigarettes since 2000.
- Lack of attractive alternative
products to smoking.
Figure 2. The proportion of ever-smokers who
have now stopped smoking
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The
slope of the graph gives the trend. The strongest increases have been
in Canada, Australia (flagging), and
the UK (Recently
Increasing).
Up
to 2006, the slowest increase in quitting has occurred in NZ and in the
USA up to 2005.
Smokers
can buy cheap RYO cigarettes in NZ, and cheap manufactured cigarettes
in the USA.
Manufactured
cigarettes are expensive in the UK, Australia, and Canada.
In Sweden 71% of smokers
who had also used snuff daily had quit (as against 53% of smokers who
had not).
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Based on Figure
2: (all comparisons
based on daily smoking)
NZ: The proportion of smokers who have quit
increased slowly up to 2006. (Figure 2).
Canada: Smoking reduced from 22.9% in 1997 to
15.3% in 2007.
Sweden: 71% of smokers
who had used snuff daily, had quit smoking.
Australia: former smokers
have increased from 24% in 1997 to 25% in 2007. In 1997, 22.5% of
Australian adults smoked; in 2007, 16.6%.
United States: Cigarettes are
more affordable, and are still advertised. Quitting has not increased, in fact former smokers have reduced from
23% to 21% over ten years.
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Sources
for data on daily smoking prevalence:
Australia: AIHW NDS Australian Institute of Health and
Welfare, National drug strategy
household surveys. www.aihw.gov.au 1987-2007.
Canada: Canadian Tobacco Use Monitoring Survey. www.hc-sc.gc.ca
1999-2007
New Zealand
. NZ Census. http://www.endsmoking.org.nz/enews14Dec06.htm
NZ National Health Survey, 1996 and 2007, decrease
adjusted to 10 years. Ministry of Health.
NZ AC Nielsen surveys, 1983-2007 Ministry of Health.
Sweden Statistics Sweden. www.statveca.com.se
Snuff-using quitters of smoking: Ramstrom LM, Foulds J
Tobacco Control.15: 210-14. www.tobaccocontrol.com
UK General Household Survey..
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ 2007.
USA: Morbidity and Mortality Reports: NHIS
surveys up to 2005, based on daily smoking.
http://www.cdc.gov/search.do?action=search&queryText=MMWR+smoking&x=13&y=9
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